Chocolatine: Outage Detection for Internet Background Radiation

Andreas Guillot∗ , Romain Fontugne† , Philipp Winter‡ , Pascal Merindol∗ Alistair King‡ , Alberto Dainotti‡ , Cristel Pelsser∗

Chocolatine detects remote connectivity loss using Internet Background Radiation (IBR). Outages are indicated by significant deviations from the predicted number of IP’s for the next time window. The predictions are made from statistical models using Seasonal ARIMA because it is shown that the number of IP addresses from an Autonomous System or geographical area follow a periodic pattern. Chocolatine was evaluated using data from STARDUST with a set of documented outages. It outperforms CAIDA’s own IBR-based detection methods and shares a large common set of outages with other methods in addition to many specific outages that would otherwise go undetected.

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